The Front Porch
Bay Area housing, in plain English — pull up a chair.
Edition No. 1Friday, October 24, 2026Reporting on September 2026
This Week’s Big Idea

Two Bay Areas showed up in September.

In one, sellers still set the terms. In the other, buyers are quietly getting their market back. Which one you’re standing in depends on your city — here are the three numbers that prove it.

San Francisco
$2,050,000

The typical single-family home sold for $2,050,000 — up 17.4% from last September — with only 1.6 months of homes for sale. A balanced market runs 5–6 months.

In plain English: up there, sellers still set the terms.

Santa Clara County
+21% more listings

About a fifth more homes are listed than a year ago — roughly 2 months of choice, the most breathing room buyers have had in a while. And yet the best homes still move fast: Sunnyvale averaged 11 days on market at 106.8% of asking.

More doors to open — and still no time to hesitate on the good ones.

San Ramon
−12.8% year over year

The typical home eased to $1,570,000 — one softer month in one of the East Bay’s priciest cities, on a small number of sales.

An opening for buyers, on a trend worth watching — not a collapse.

September at a Glance

The Bay Area, in four numbers.

$1,325,000
Bay Area Median Price

Up 1.9% from last September — the region as a whole is steady, even while individual cities swing hard in both directions.

2.6 months
Homes for Sale

Against a balanced market’s 5–6 months, the region still leans seller — just less than it did.

19 days
Median Time on Market

The typical home went pending in under three weeks — priced right, it still moves.

100.2%
Sale-to-List Ratio

On average, homes sold for a hair over asking — negotiation cuts both ways again, city by city.

The rate line: September’s average 30-year rate was 6.86%. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week ending October 15, 2026 printed 7.40%. What that gap means in real money: about $290 a month for every half-point on an $800,000 loan — which is why the week’s rate matters as much as the week’s prices.
What This Paper Is

One agent. One paper. Every Friday.

The Front Porch is researched and written by me personally — no content team, no syndicated filler. Fourteen Bay Area cities, plus a look beyond the Bay, with every number carrying its context and its “what it means.” No naked numbers, no scary headlines.

The Number of the Week

One figure that tells the week’s story — with the comparison, the level, and the plain-English translation.

Beyond the Bay

Tracy, Modesto, Stockton, and Manteca — where Bay Area money moves when it wants room to breathe.

What I’d Watch

The one trend, deadline, or data release that could change next month’s story — named sources, ranged expectations, no promises.

The Bottom Line

What it all means if you’re buying, selling, or holding — in two sentences, every week.

San Francisco · San Jose · Oakland · Fremont · Sunnyvale · Santa Clara · Palo Alto · Mountain View · Berkeley · Walnut Creek · Livermore · Pleasanton · Dublin · San Ramon — plus Beyond the Bay.

Sources & method

Every figure in The Front Porch is labeled with its source, its month, and its basis — closed-sale, listing, or modeled — and the bases are never mixed silently. Primary sources: the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), MLSListings, SCCAOR, REreport, Realtor.com research data, Zillow (ZHVI), and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for rates.

When sources disagree, the paper says so and tells you which one it’s standing on. That’s the whole method: show the work.

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